As soon as it became clear Donald Trump had clinched victory in last November’s presidential election, the travel industry braced itself for a second Trump Slump. Just shy of 100 days back in power, we are already starting to see evidence of a downturn in travel to the US...and this may only be the beginning.
A recent snap poll conducted by TTG revealed what many in the travel industry have suspected for a while: a second ‘Trump Slump’ appears to be happening. Two-thirds (67%) of travel agents who responded said there had ‘definitely’ been a downturn in bookings to the USA, with many citing President Donald Trump’s actions and rhetoric over his first few months in office as the root cause of the drop.
Data from the U.S. International Trade Administration published last week seems to back this up, flagging that visitors to America from 20 major countries dropped 10.3% in March compared to the same month last year. The overall figures for Q1 also showed that overseas arrivals were down 3.3% compared to 2024, with sharp drops in visitors from Canada and Mexico.
And it seems some travel agents are scaling back on advertising holiday packages to the States in light of the current political climate. Little wonder, judging by the comments sparked by a recent Hays Travel Facebook post promoting a New York break:
Not everyone is seeing an obvious downturn in popularity. On the contrary, for some travel agents, such as Eve Moir, interest in US holidays remains as strong as ever.
“Lots of people are asking me and my colleagues whether we are still getting many USA enquiries. The answer is yes and our clients are as keen to travel to America as always. I am currently working on a big multi-centre holiday to Florida for 2026 as well as a Christmas trip to New York”
From post-pandemic optimism to MAGA misery
Five years on from the Pandemic, 2025 was tipped to be an American dream in terms of tourism levels. The National Travel and Tourism Office had initially predicted that total international arrivals would increase by 6.5% to 77.1 million in 2025. Instead, a new forecast from Tourism Economics predicts a 9.4% drop in total international visitors this year, almost doubling the previous forecast of a 5% decline made just weeks earlier. To put this into monetary terms, visitor spending in the US is expected to drop by $9 billion this year – ouch!
Trump’s rhetoric leaves Canadians cold
Donald Trump’s half-serious but fully inflammatory suggestions that Canada should become America’s 51st state have, quite understandably, annoyed people north of the border. “When you piss off a country and threaten to annex them, they are not going to want to travel here,” explained Matt Levy, owner of the New York City tour guide company, Spread Love Tours, whose business with Canadian groups is forecast to decline 50% this year.
It’s worth noting that Canadians have been one of New York City’s most dedicated visitor groups – second only to us Brits – and have poured $600 million into the local economy last year alone. But that flow is set to slow dramatically. School trips and coach excursions to NYC are being cancelled en masse, while new bookings to the United States from Canada have dropped approximately 20% since the beginning of February compared with the same period last year.
What about the UK / Europe?
The snap poll by TTG wasn’t a simple case of doom-mongering. An article published by The Guardian suggested the number of UK residents visiting the US was down 14.3% in March compared with the same month in 2024. This dip may be an indication of an even bigger drop to come this summer, as tourists typically book holidays months in advance.
Transatlantic relations elsewhere across Europe are strained, exacerbated by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s leaked message to an Atlantic journalist in a Signal chat group:
“I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC”
Needless to say, this didn’t go down well.
France and the USA have always had a somewhat rocky relationship (anyone remember ‘freedom fries’?!) but now French travellers are making their mécontentement felt through their wallets. Jean-François Rial, CEO of France’s leading luxury tour operator Voyageurs du Monde, says that ever since Trump’s inauguration earlier this year, bookings for US travel have dropped a whopping 20%. “In the 30 years I’ve been in this business, I’ve never seen anything like this for any destination. It’s huge,” he told CNN Travel.
Further north, the Scandinavians are just as cheesed off, not helped by JD Vance’s provocative comments regarding Denmark-Greenland relations. Jacob Bøll, a consultant who lives in Copenhagen, told CNN Travel "we consider the US to be our best friend. Now, we’re not only not friends anymore, it’s like our friend started a fist fight with us”.
Search is a mixed bag
If you’d been ignoring the news for the past six months and focusing purely on search data, you'd be forgiven for thinking travel to the States was holding steady and, in some cases, on the up. Global searches on Semrush for ‘usa holidays’ for example were up 14% in March when compared to the same period last year while variations on the same keyword yielded similar findings. Searches to specific locations within the USA varied, with ‘florida holidays’ and ‘new york holidays’ seeing drops of 6% and 13% respectively, while ‘california holidays’ saw a 6% rise. Searches for New Orleans and New England, meanwhile, saw no increase or drop YoY.
Perhaps more telling is the fact searches for ‘is usa safe’ are up by 25%. Make of that what you will.
What about the next four years?
It won’t have escaped the attention of travel marketers that the USA will be playing host to the two biggest sporting events in the world during Trump’s presidential term: the FIFA Men’s World Cup (2026) and the Olympics (2028). This should be a time for the country to present itself as open and welcoming to the world – not stirring up tension. Trump, you’ll be unsurprised to hear, begs to differ: “Oh, I think it’s going to make it more exciting. Tension’s a good thing”.
These global events are likely to pose a diplomatic headache for the Trump administration. With thousands of international athletes - many from countries targeted by Trump's rhetoric or tariffs - competing on American soil, activities involving protests (e.g. taking the knee or booing the American national anthem) could quickly spiral into major international incidents. Trump’s characteristically combative response to any perceived slight against America risks overshadowing the competitions themselves.
It's not just about spectators coming to watch the events. The tariffs are likely to have a negative impact on those businesses from across the world involved in construction, sponsorship, logistics, materials, etc. Korean car manufacturer Hyundai Group, for instance, will seek to capitalise on its sponsorship deal with football governing body FIFA during next year’s World Cup but could Trump's bullish trade policies make such businesses reconsider?
The ‘Trump Slump II’ may prove to be more than just a temporary blip when it comes to tourism – it risks becoming one of history’s cautionary tales. It’ll be interesting to see how the situation unfolds over the next few months – as we’re all too aware, things move fast when it comes to Trump. In fact, this blog may already be out of date by the time I hit ‘publish’.
What is certain though is that the Land of the Free risks becoming a no-go for tourists…or at least a destination weighed down by more political baggage than travellers wish to carry.
